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02/08/2012 - East Lansing, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the Big Ten Conference standings meet in East Lansing this evening, as the Penn State Nittany Lions challenge the 11th-ranked Michigan State Spartans at the Breslin Center.
Penn State comes in with a record of 10-14, which includes a 2-9 mark in conference play. The Nittany Lions are in the midst of a four-game losing streak, and they've won only two games since posting back-to-back victories over Mount St. Mary's and Cornell just prior to Christmas. PSU is a woeful 1-8 in true road tilts this season, and has lost its last seven bouts as the visitor.
Michigan State is 18-5 on the year, and 7-3 in conference, and the team's record is even more impressive when you consider it started the year 0-2 after losses to ACC powers North Carolina and Duke. The Spartans took care of bitter rival Michigan on Sunday, 64-54, giving the team three victories in it last four outings. MSU is a perfect 14-0 at home this season, and has won 15 straight at the Breslin Center going back to last year.
Michigan State owns a commanding 29-7 advantage in the all-time series with Penn State, and that includes an 18-1 mark in East Lansing. However, the Lions have won two of the last three meetings, the most recent of which being a 61-48 decision in the semifinals of the 2011 Big Ten Conference Tournament.
Despite being the lowest scoring team in the Big Ten (61.8 ppg), Penn State has one of the more productive players in the conference on its roster in the form of junior guard Tim Frazier. The 6-1 native of Houston, Texas is averaging 18.3 points and 6.3 assists per game, although he is shooting just 40.7 percent from the field and only 28.8 percent from three-point range. Jermaine Marshall is the Lions' only other double-digit scorer at the moment, but his 10.3 ppg come on just 37.1 percent field goal efficiency. As a team, PSU is hitting a mere 38.3 percent of its total shots, 30.8 percent from downtown, and only 66.7 percent of its free throws. Conversely, its foes are 42.8 percent accurate from the floor, 36.4 percent from beyond the arc and 74.2 percent at the foul line. The Lions do however, own favorable margins in both rebounding (+3.7) and turnovers (+1.5). Frazier was once again on top of his game in netting 23 points, but Penn State still managed to lose for the fourth straight time and the seventh time in the last eight games with a 77-64 setback at Iowa last Saturday.
Hot shooting and a dominating rebounding effort proved to be the difference in Michigan State's recent win over Michigan, as the Spartans hit 52.2 percent of their field goal attempts and easily won the battle on the boards, 40-16. Draymond Green logged a double-double consisting of 14 points and 16 rebounds, while Keith Appling and Branden Dawson pitched in with 10 points apiece for MSU. The club's defensive effort held the Wolverines to 39.6 percent field goal efficiency, and UM star guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. to just four points. As it is pretty much every year under the watchful eye of head coach Tom Izzo, Michigan State is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, and it comes into this contest sporting the best rebounding margin in the Big Ten at +10.5. Through 23 games, Green is the team's leading scorer with 14.8 ppg, and he adds 10.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 34 steals and 24 blocks to his impressive stat line. Appling is the only other double-digit scorer presently, netting 11.9 ppg, and he is the active assists leader with 3.8 apg. As a collective unit, the Spartans are putting up 73.7 ppg while allowing a mere 59.1 ppg. They are hitting their total shots at a 47.7 percent clip, while the opposition does so at just 37.9 percent, which includes a poor 29.3 percent effort from long range.
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Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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